March 21, 2024 – Citi analysts have triple counted biological asset valuations in their financial model. A correction brings the price target from SEK 156 to SEK 95. On 15 March 2024 we wrote to Citi analyst, Ephrem Ravi, to inform him of a material
March 18, 2024 – Arbor’s underlying CLO performance data for March 2024 is now live. 66 of Arbor’s CLO loans are now delinquent, representing 20% of its CLO book. We note that Arbor has made 9 modifications to loans in its CLO over the last
March 9, 2024 – Steward continues to implode: MPW and communities it was supposed to serve are caught in the gravitational pull of a massive, insolvent dying star. The situation in Massachusetts has become so dire that Senators Elizabeth Warren and Edward Markey addressed a
February 2, 2024 – Below is Viceroy’s subpoena to MPW’s auditor PWC. While we don’t have much confidence in MPW’s financials we hope PWC’s disclosures will be more illuminating than their audits.
February 21, 2024 – On February 16th, Arbor announced 2023 earnings and held a conference call. Like many investors (or nasty short sellers), we left the call with more questions than answers. Arbor CEO Ivan Kaufman claims that Arbor has substantially cured their delinquent portfolio,
February 15, 2024 – On February 7, 2024, SCA responded to our report with data mined statistics which serve to satisfy management’s valuation and harvesting delusions. This response can be found here: https://www.sca.com/en/media/news/2024/clarification-regarding-questions-relating-to-the-valuation-of-forest-assets-harvesting-forest-damage-and-accounting-related-matters/ As usual: the majority of the sell side lapped up this response
February 14, 2024 – Viceroy has sent another letter to MPW’s auditors, 1 year following our previous correspondence. We note that in that year PWC have continued to fail in their capacity as auditor to assure the financial statements of MPW are free of material
February 1, 2024 – Viceroy Research will debate Christian Kopfer of Handelsbanken this Friday, February 2, 2024, on DITV. This serves as an opportunity to address aspects of our analysis that were disregarded in his last appearance. Viceroy offers this summary of our work. Breaking
We have previously explained how SCA’s forest asset valuation model is entirely inappropriate and its unexplained premium in m3fo to competitors. This results in a valuation that is completely dislocated from future cash flows, the only real purpose of the 2m hectares of productive forest
January 25, 2024 – Viceroy are short Svenska Cellulosa AB (STO:SCA-B)(“SCA”). SCA has massively inflated its forest assets on paper. Its valuation methodology has relied on short-term price fluctuations, interest rate fluctuations, and mark-to-market assumptions for numerous unrealistic inputs to massively inflate SCA’s forestry assets.
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