March 22, 2024 – SCA’s AGM gives investors the rare opportunity to press management for more clarity on their gravity defying forestry assets. SCA have significantly brought forward the timing of two FTAX surveys, the most recent in 2019. SCA then acquires standing timber (m3fo)
March 21, 2024 – Citi analysts have triple counted biological asset valuations in their financial model. A correction brings the price target from SEK 156 to SEK 95. On 15 March 2024 we wrote to Citi analyst, Ephrem Ravi, to inform him of a material
February 15, 2024 – On February 7, 2024, SCA responded to our report with data mined statistics which serve to satisfy management’s valuation and harvesting delusions. This response can be found here: https://www.sca.com/en/media/news/2024/clarification-regarding-questions-relating-to-the-valuation-of-forest-assets-harvesting-forest-damage-and-accounting-related-matters/ As usual: the majority of the sell side lapped up this response
February 1, 2024 – Viceroy Research will debate Christian Kopfer of Handelsbanken this Friday, February 2, 2024, on DITV. This serves as an opportunity to address aspects of our analysis that were disregarded in his last appearance. Viceroy offers this summary of our work. Breaking
We have previously explained how SCA’s forest asset valuation model is entirely inappropriate and its unexplained premium in m3fo to competitors. This results in a valuation that is completely dislocated from future cash flows, the only real purpose of the 2m hectares of productive forest
January 25, 2024 – Viceroy are short Svenska Cellulosa AB (STO:SCA-B)(“SCA”). SCA has massively inflated its forest assets on paper. Its valuation methodology has relied on short-term price fluctuations, interest rate fluctuations, and mark-to-market assumptions for numerous unrealistic inputs to massively inflate SCA’s forestry assets.