DISCLAIMER

Vedanta – Q1 FY26 Analysis

August 5, 2028 – Vedanta Ltd (VEDL) reported a record Q1 adjusted EBITDA of ₹10,746 crore ($1.3b) on revenues of ₹37,434 crore ($4.4b). This headline performance belies the company’s deep structural weaknesses. Beneath the veneer of profitability lies a balance sheet under stress, with unsustainable dividend payouts, rising leverage, and margin siphoning through opaque promoter-controlled entities. VEDL is being systematically drained by its largest shareholder, Vedanta Resources Limited (VRL) and the Agarwal family.

  • Record EBITDA masks deeper issues, with no free cash flow to fund capex or dividends; both were covered through asset sales and fresh debt
  • Offshore oil ambitions are financially unviable; high-risk projects cannot proceed without major dilution or new leverage
  • Power segment remains loss-making; Meenakshi and Athena operate without long-term PPAs and face cost structures above merchant rates
  • ₹3,247 crore in brand fees diverted to Vedanta Resources, despite no clear services rendered. Capital is being extracted from VEDL, not reinvested
  • Working capital saw a sharp reversal of ₹3,916 crore, undermining the narrative of stable liquidity and confirming past cash flows were artificially propped up.
  • Demerger timeline pushed again amid NCLT delays and formal objection from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; risk of legal and regulatory blockages remains high
  • Minority shareholders sidelined as Vedanta prioritizes brand fee remittances to VRL over returning capital to all shareholders equally.
  • Growing scrutiny from regulators including the ED and SEBI, with increasing attention on related-party transactions, circular funding, and governance failures

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