January 21, 2025 – Despite their best efforts of window dressing (and there was a lot of effort), Arbor’s CLO delinquencies are up 33% month-on-month in January 2025 to $1.1b. Substantially all delinquencies have already been modified, many as recently as Q4 2024.
- Arbor has modified $4.7b of loans and holds $1.1b of delinquent loans.
- Modified loans represent ~80% of Arbor’s ~$6b CLO portfolio, and delinquent loans ~19%.
- Substantially all delinquent loans have already been modified, many as recently as Q4 2024.
- Delinquent loans are not being cured and are falling further into delinquency.
- Almost $300m of loans are delinquent over 90 days.
- Loan reserves are down month-on-month.
- Arbor continues to try cure the true value of its delinquencies by modifying loans month-on-month.
- Arbor modified $934m of loans against ~50 properties in the month ending January 9, 2025, representing ~16% of its portfolio.
- Substantially all these loans had already been modified, many in Q4 2024
The evidence of this lies within underlying operational data and the enormous concessions arbor has taken in its interest spreads. Arbor can no longer afford to pay its dividend.