DISCLAIMER
Viceroy Research Logo

Publications

Insights, analysis, and commentary on markets and companies. Use the search or filters to find content you're interested in.

Filters

Our Coverage: Close Brothers Group LSE:CBG

2 Results

Close Brothers - Grand Theft Auto

The FCA’s finalized policy statement validates Viceroy’s analysis. Viceroy’s Blue-Sky scenario still suggests Close Brothers will have to more than double its existing provisions.PLEASE READ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERMarch 31, 2026 - The FCA released the final details and adjustments to its Motor Finance Redress Scheme after-market yesterday, March 30 2026. The FCA’s Policy Statement substantially validates our preliminary analysis with regards to Close Brothers’ redress exposure. We have made updates to our scenario analysis to reflect changes from the Consultation Paper to the Policy Statement (PS26/3).Close Brothers’ redress obligations under PS26/3 erode CET1 capital, leading to near-certain regulatory intervention by the PRA, and force conversion of AT1 notes.There is now sufficient clarity in relation to lenders’ obligations under PS26/3 that Close Brothers must materially revise its “probability-weighted” provision upwards. Viceroy’s Blue-Sky scenario still suggests Close Brothers will have to more than double its existing provisions.Unlike PPI where firms managed the payout timetable over nearly a decade, PS26/3 forces crystallisation within a defined window. CBG cannot kick the can, provision incrementally and wait for earnings to absorb the cost. The liability arrives on an expedited schedule the FCA controls, not management.

Close Brothers Group (LSE:CBG)

Close Brothers - Commission Impossible

Examination of the FCA’s redress scheme suggests that Close Brothers will have to, at least, double its existing provisions. CET1 regulatory capital limits are already at risk.PLEASE READ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERMarch 16, 2026 – Viceroy Research is short Close Brothers Group (LSE:CBG). We believe CBG has systematically misrepresented its exposure to the FCA’s forthcoming Motor Finance Consumer Redress Scheme. Our review of the FCA’s consultation paper, court transcripts, and independent claims suggests that CBG will have to double its existing provisions (at least).Viceroy’s “Blue Sky” outcome indicates that equity-holders will be substantially wiped out in a restructure.Why haven't Close Brothers fully provisioned for the redress already? Because further provisions will breach CET1 regulatory capital restrictions and can create an equity wipeout event.Analysis of FCA consultation paper CP25/27 and Supreme Court case law indicates that Close Brothers’ redress exposure ranges from £572m to £1.07bn, well above its current £300m provision.Close Brothers has exhausted all available measures to sustain its capital base, including the sale of key subsidiaries, Risk Weighted Asset (RWA) reductions, and dividend cancellations.At these levels, the group’s CET1 ratio will approach regulatory breach thresholds. Any further provisions risk pushing the firm below its minimum capital requirements, triggering:The suspension of AT1 coupons and possible write-down of the assetsCredit rating downgrades to junkRegulatory intervention for restructure

Close Brothers Group (LSE:CBG)

Be the first to hear about our research & news