October 30, 2025 – Arbor Real Estate is due to present its Q3 2025 earnings results tomorrow morning. In anticipation, we have consolidated some notes from previous earnings and insights from regular CLO filings to present a preview of what we expect. Earnings & Dividend:
October 28, 2025 –Arbor’s October CLO reporting data is completely fabricated. We have reported significant misstatements in the past about obvious errors in Arbor’s CLO reporting, however no single month has recorded so many erroneous entries in its CLO reporting. Arbor has cured $350m of
September 19, 2025 –MFR net spreads continue to nosedive, DCRS show a slight improvement due to a fall in spread (Arbor revenues). Arbor >30-day delinquencies have remained relatively flat, however we observe a significant number of 90+ day delinquencies are moving off-balance-sheet, presumably into foreclosures.
August 6, 2025 – Arbor’s 10-Q marks the first time Arbor appears to be forced to sell foreclosed assets at significant discounts to UPB and outstanding loan balances. Even Arbor’s comically inflated distributable income output is not sufficient to cover its dividend this quarter. Arbor’s
July 24, 2025 –Arbor Realty’s net spreads continue to nosedive, suggesting a further fall in Q2 2025 revenues. More significant errors in Arbor’s reporting of delinquencies, total debt, and debt servicing costs against underlying collateral have also been uncovered. Arbor’s underlying CLO Debt Service Coverage
May 21, 2025 –Arbor net spreads continue to nosedive, suggesting a further fall in Q2 2025 revenues. More significant errors in Arbor’s reporting of delinquencies, total debt, and debt servicing costs against underlying collateral have also been uncovered. Either the DSCR of Arbor CLOs have
April 24, 2025 – Arbor have closed 2 CLOs last month, announcing that loans will be placed in allegedly cheaper repo lines. We have amended the surveillance reporting of the remaining CLOs accordingly and uncovered more significant errors in Arbor’s reporting of total debt against
March 24, 2025 – Arbor have closed 2 CLOs this month, announcing that loans will be placed in allegedly cheaper repo lines. This report will show that cheaper financing is nothing but a fairytale woven by management. Arbor performance has continued to rapidly deteriorate, as
March 4, 2025 – Arbor’s 10-K is littered with creative accounting and outright incorrect data as its window-dressing campaign continues. This report will highlight the most egregious examples of Arbor’s fabrication of financial data, and contrast this with real performance data from its CLOs. Arbor’s
February 21, 2025 – Arbor’s CLO delinquencies are up 33% month-on-month in January 2025 to $1.1b. Substantially all delinquencies have already been modified, many as recently as Q4 2024. Arbor has modified $4.7b of loans and holds $1.0b of delinquent loans. Modified loans represent ~82%
Viceroy Research LLC are an investigative financial research group registered in Delaware, USA.
Our research reports have been prepared for educational purposes only and expresses our opinions. Our reports and any statements made in connection with them are the authors’ opinions, which have been based upon publicly available facts, field research, information, and analysis through our due diligence process, and are not statements of fact. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice, and we do not undertake to update or supplement any reports or any of the information, analysis and opinion contained in them. We believe that the publication of our opinions about public companies that we research is in the public interest. We are entitled to our opinions and to the right to express such opinions in a public forum. You can access any information or evidence cited in this report or that we relied on to write this report from information in the public domain.
To the best of our ability and belief, all information contained herein is accurate and reliable, and has been obtained from public sources we believe to be accurate and reliable, and who are not insiders or connected persons of the stocks covered herein or who may otherwise owe any fiduciary duty or duty of confidentiality to the issuer. We have a good-faith belief in everything we write; however, all such information is presented “as is,” without warranty of any kind – whether express or implied.
In no event will we be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information available on this report. Think critically about our opinions and do your own research and analysis before making any investment decisions. We are not registered as an investment advisor in any jurisdiction. By downloading, reading or otherwise using our research reports, you agree to do your own research and due diligence before making any investment decision with respect to securities discussed herein, and by doing so, you represent to us that you have sufficient investment sophistication to critically assess the information, analysis and opinions in this report. You should seek the advice of a security professional regarding your stock transactions.
This website, all documents contained herein or any information herein should not be interpreted as an offer, a solicitation of an offer, invitation, marketing of services or products, advertisement, inducement, or representation of any kind, nor as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment products or to make any type of investment, or as an opinion on the merits or otherwise of any particular investment or investment strategy.
Any examples or interpretations of investments and investment strategies or trade ideas are intended for illustrative and educational purposes only and are not indicative of the historical or future performance or the chances of success of any particular investment and/or strategy.
You should assume that the authors have a direct or indirect interest/position in all stocks (and/or options, swaps, and other derivative securities related to the stock) and bonds covered herein, and therefore stand to realize monetary gains in the event that the price of either declines.
The authors may continue transacting directly and/or indirectly in the securities of issuers covered herein for an indefinite period and may be long, short, or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of their initial recommendation.